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DummyModelResult(strategy="mean") uses the mean of the compared observations - #736

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Closes #724.

The mean was taken over the whole observation before matching trimmed it, so the baseline depended on how long an observation file was loaded and its r2 was not 0. The mean is now set after matching, from the observations that are compared, in both the matched data and raw_mod_data. A long-term mean is passed explicitly as data=.

test_compare_model_vs_dummy_for_track pinned the old value (rmse 1.2259, with a comment that it differs because of the subset); it now asserts r2 = 0 on the subset.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Closes #724

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

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DummyModelResult(strategy="mean") averages the whole observation, not the compared period

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